Six riskiest players to pick in 2024 fantasy football drafts

ADP: Round 4 (WR21)

Last season, his first with the Bears, Moore was the only reliable wide receiver on the roster. Because of that, he was peppered with targets, and he put up career highs in receiving yards (1,364), receiving TDs (eight) and fantasy ranking (WR6 in total fantasy points). This offseason, the team added a ton of great offensive talent — which is fortunate for Chicago fans, but not so fortunate for Moore’s fantasy prospects. In 2023, Moore’s greatest competition for targets among the receiver group came from the likes of Darnell Mooney and Tyler Scott. This season, Moore will be battling with trade acquisition Keenan Allen, who has been a target-hog his entire career, and rookie Rome Odunze, the ninth overall draft pick, who has reportedly looked electric in training camp. It is very plausible to expect a solid decline in target share for Moore this season, and that makes his draft price very risky. Consider how his fantasy output sank last season in games where he was targeted eight times or fewer:

• Nine-plus targets: 25.4 fantasy points per game (eight games)
• Eight targets or fewer: 9.3 fantasy points per game (nine games)

Sure, one could argue the beefed-up supporting cast and addition of QB Caleb Williams could increase Moore’s efficiency, but he already averaged a very respectable 14.2 yards per reception in 2023, with a catch rate of 71%. It’s hard to be much more efficient than that.