Jets vs. Vikings in London: Game will be decided by Sam Darnold’s, Aaron Rodgers’ success vs. top 5 defenses

The 2024 Minnesota Vikings are off to a 4-0 historic start. After defeating the Green Bay Packers in a 31-29 road win at Lambeau Field in Week 4, they became the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive games in a season, all without trailing against teams who won playoff games in the previous year.

Minnesota has knocked off the 2023 NFC champion San Francisco 49ers (Week 2), the 2023 AFC South champion Houston Texans (Week 3) and a 2023 NFC wild card Packers squad (Week 4) in each of the last three weeks without trailing. They have done this behind stellar defense from defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ unit and quarterback Sam Darnold, originally thought to be a temporary bridge for 2024 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy, playing like an NFL MVP candidate in head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense through the first quarter of the 2024 season. 

However, the Vikings will be greeted by a similarly stingy defense in Robert Saleh’s New York Jets unit, and of course future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, a familiar foe, across the pond at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London during Week 5. 

NFL defensive ranks this season

How will either offense earn a win over their vaunted adversary on the other side of the football? Let’s take a closer look at the biggest factors on each side of the football.   

Vikings offense vs. Jets defense

Yes, it’s jarring to see Sam Darnold, the 2018 NFL Draft third overall pick, morph from potential Jets savior, to disgruntled journeyman and now to 2024 NFL MVP hopeful through four weeks. That’s the reality though. Darnold leads the NFL with 11 passing touchdowns and a 118.9 passer rating while ranking second in passing yards per attempt (8.8) behind only San Francisco 49ers Pro Bowl quarterback Brock Purdy (9.3). He is crushing it. 

Darnold is in a small club with that performance as only the fifth quarterback since at least 1950 to go 4-0 with at least 10 passing touchdowns in his first four starts with a team joining Patrick Mahomes with the Kansas City Chiefs (2017-2018), Hall of Famer Kurt Warner with the Rams (1999), Jeff George with the Vikings (1999) and Vinny Testaverde with the Jets (1998). It’s been a special season thus far. 

He and the Minnesota offense will face a New York defense led by All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner that is the best in the NFL at limiting big plays in the passing game (4.7 yards per pass attempted allowed, best in the NFL) and one of the best at not allowing big plays in general (4.4 yards per play allowed, second-best in NFL). 

Jets defense this season

• 1st in opponents’ yards/pass attempt (4.7)
• 2nd in opponents’ yards/play (4.4)
• T-2nd in total defense (256.5 total yards per game allowed )
• T-4th in sacks (14)
• 5th in scoring defense (15.5)

Darnold has been literally perfect when targeting 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson when he’s been blitzed this season: 9-for-9 passing for 227 yards (25.2 yards/attempt), two touchdowns, no interceptions and a perfect passer rating (158.3). Overall, he also has a perfect 158.3 passer rating when blitzed as well completing 18 of 20 passes for 335 yards (16.8 yards/attempt), four touchdowns and no interceptions this season. 

Jefferson has also been prolific this season with a co-league leading four receiving touchdowns and 358 receiving yards, the fifth-most in the NFL. His 17.9 yards per catch (20 rec, 358 rec yds) would be a career high.

The problem for Minnesota’s passing attack is New York doesn’t blitz at a high volume. The Jets blitz at a 27.9% rate, 15th in the NFL or slightly above league average. Despite being middle of the pack in blitz rate, New York is still generating a high amount of quarterback pressure with a 39.5%, the fourth-best in the NFL, thanks to Williams and 2023 first-round pick Will McDonald, whose five sacks are tied for the third-most in the NFL. The Vikings also have an early season turnover problem: they have seven giveaways this season, tied for the third-most in the NFL and trailing only the Tennessee Titans‘ nine and the Philadelphia Eagles eight. 

The turnovers haven’t all come in one game either: Minnesota has multiple giveaways in three of their four games in 2024, tied for the most such games int he league along with the Titans, Eagles and Seattle Seahawks. Both the Vikings’ offense and the Jets’ defense are high-powered units, but New York gets the slight edge here because they don’t create situations Minnesota craves (facing the blitz) at a high rate. They limit their opponents by playing disciplined defense with each player winning their individual matchup for the most part. 

Edge: Slight lean toward Jets 

Jets offense vs. Vikings defense

On the flip side, Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores LOVES to blitz. His Minnesota unit led the NFL in blitz rate in 2023 at with a 50.7% clip, no other team had over 50%, and 2024 is quite similar: their 41.5% blitz rate is the second-highest in the league, trailing only the Denver Broncos‘ 49.7% rate. 

That’s bad news for the 40-year-old, still fresh off a torn Achilles version of four-time NFL MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He was blitzed 25 times — the third-most for any quarterback in a game this season — in a wet, rainy 10-9 upset home loss against Bo Nix’s Denver Broncos. Rodgers has completed 23 of his 38 attempts against the blitz (60.5%, 20th in NFL) for 207 yards and two touchdowns for a 92.8 passer rating (17th in the NFL) this season. Rodgers has averaged 5.4 yards per pass attempt when blitzed, the eight-fewest in the NFL. That’s a problem. 

However, New York’s offensive line has held up well for Rodgers this season, allowing a quarterback pressure rate of 27.7%, the fifth-best in the NFL. Perhaps still slightly skittish post-Achilles tear, Rodgers has attempted a quick pass, under 2.5 seconds time to throw, at the third-highest rate in the NFL this season 57.8%, per NFL Pro Insights. He has completed 51 of his 74 quick passes, 68.9% (seventh-lowest in NFL), for 483 yards and three touchdowns this season. His 483 yards on quick passes for the third-most in the NFL. 

That should help him avoid a Vikings pass rush that leads the league with 17 sacks. They are tied with the New Orleans Saints for the most players with at least three sacks this season with three: edge rusher Patrick Jones II (5.0 sacks), edge rusher Jonathan Greenard (4.0 sacks) and edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel (3.0 sacks). 

Vikings defense this season

• Most sacks in NFL (17)
• Lowest man-to-man rate in NFL (12.1%)
• Highest zone coverage rate in NFL 83.1%  
• 2nd-highest blitz rate in NFL (41.5%)
• 3rd in opponents’ yards/rush (3.8)

However, Minnesota’s stingy run defense may have Rodgers playing in plenty of third and medium’s to third and long’s, ideal situations for Flores to dial up his blitz packages. Jets running back Breece Hall is coming off one of the worst performances of his career with 18 scrimmage yards in Week 4, the second-fewest in a game of his career. The Vikings also turn people over as evidenced by their 10 takeaways this season, the second-most in the NFL behind the Green Bay Packers’ 12. That could be a problem for a Jets offense that is coming off a week in which Rodgers’ pre-snap, hard count cadence, a signature of the Hall of Famer’s career, came under question from his own head coach. 

Edge: Vikings

Verdict: Vikings, but you can’t ever count out Aaron Rodgers

The Vikings are favored by 2.5 points, according to SportsLine’s consensus odds, which makes sense. This should be a close game, but Darnold has more weapons to win than Rodgers does. Last week, the Packers double-teamed Jefferson on almost every pass play early, so he beat Green Bay with a 29-yard touchdown to No. 2 wideout Jordan Addison. He also has a thriving safety valve in former Packer Aaron Jones, who is one of just two players with over 250 rushing yards (321) and 100 receiving receiving yards (143) this season along with Saints Pro Bowler Alvin Kamara. Rodgers’ No. 2 option is longtime Packers and now Jets running mate Allen Lazard, who might be a better blocker than a receiver. Plus, there’s the massive play-calling gap between Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell and Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. 

Sure, Rodgers can pull a rabbit out of the hat. It’s dangerous to count him out, but it’s likely that Darnold, who is equipped with a better offensive ecosystem and the Vikings prevail to improve to 5-0 for the first time since 2016.