International Game Preview: Patriots at Jaguars

When the Patriots run – Edge: Jaguars

The Patriots ground game went silent last week without the services of Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson missed the Texans game with a foot injury and the Patriots could not generate anything on the ground with replacement Antonio Gibson. Gibson was smothered throughout, picking up just 19 yards on 13 carries. As rough as it’s been for the Jaguars defense thus far, stopping the run hasn’t been a big problem for Jacksonville. The Jags rank 11^th in the league, allowing 113.3 yards per game on the ground and 10^th at 4.3 yards per carry. Stevenson’s availability will be monitored throughout the week but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to give it a go in London. The Patriots problems along the offensive line haven’t helped as left tackle Vederian Lowe (ankle) continues to battle injuries while guard Michael Jordan has done the same. Whether Stevenson is active or not the Jags stout front of Travon Walker, DaVon Hamilton and Josh Hines-Allen protecting linebackers Chad Muma and Devin Lloyd should be able to contain the Patriots ground game, even without Roy Robertson-Harris, who was traded to Seattle earlier in the week.

When the Patriots pass – Edge: Patriots

It’s amazing what a difference one game can make, especially when that game involves the debut of the rookie quarterback. Drake Maye injected life into the Patriots moribund passing game by throwing three touchdown passes against a tough Houston secondary and in one game established the team’s single-game high-water mark for points (21), passing yards (243) and bettered Jacoby Brissett’s season total for touchdown passes (3 to 2). Now comes a wretched Jaguars secondary that ranks last in the league, allowing 276.7 yards through the air per game. Bears rookie Caleb Williams lit up that secondary in London last week, tossing four touchdowns in Chicago’s blowout victory. Now Maye will get a chance to see if he can build off the promise of his first start while avoiding the mistakes that hurt his performance. DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte turned in some explosive plays against the Texans and will look to exploit Jacksonville’s beleaguered corners Ronald Darby, Montaric Brown and Darnell Savage along with safeties Antonio Johnson and Andre Cisco. Savage was evaluated for a concussion in the Bears game and could be out. The key for the Patriots will be pass protection as the offensive line continues to struggle. Hines-Allen and Walker are capable edge rushers and will need to be held in check.

When the Jaguars run – Edge: Jaguars

Jacksonville’s ground game has been effective but unfortunately for Doug Pederson it just hasn’t made an impact. Thanks to the early holes the team has been in, the Jags rank 19^th in the league, averaging 116.5 yards per game on the ground. But a closer look shows an eye-popping 5.3 yards per carry, which is good enough for second in the league. It will be important for the Patriots to show some improvement against the run after allowing 193 and 192 yards on the ground in the last two games. If the Jags one-two punch of Tank Bigsby (41 carries, 297 yards, 7.2 avg.) and Travis Etienne (56-230-4.1) can get going early, it could be a long day. Etienne is dealing with a hamstring injury that ended his day early against Chicago and he will likely miss the game. Davon Godchaux continues to harp on his teammates about the importance of playing together up front, and although there were stretches when the run defense seemed to improve, ultimately the big plays Houston turned in marred the performance. The Patriots need to be tougher up front and in the second level where the loss of inside linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley has really hurt the defense. Jacksonville has been effective running the ball when the score allows the Jags to do so, and the Patriots can’t allow that to happen.

When the Jaguars pass – Edge: Patriots

Trevor Lawrence has endured a strange start to his career. As the No. 1 overall pick he struggled badly as a rookie. Then Urban Meyer was let go, Pederson took over and he looked like the future star most expected. He posted a playoff win in his second season, and had the Jags riding high at 8-3 atop the AFC last year before a high ankle sprain sent his career spiraling. Lawrence lost his next nine starts and the Jaguars went from one of the up-and-coming teams to the bottom of the league. The Jags 1-5 start hasn’t all been on Lawrence, who at times has shown flashes of his Year 2 form. He’s completing 61 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns, three picks and an 89.2 passer rating, but consistency has been a problem. He has a solid group of receivers to work with in Christian Kirk (24 catches, 296 yards, 1 TD), Brian Thomas (25-424-3) and Gabe Davis (17-204-2) and also uses Etienne and tight ends Brenton Strange and Evan Engram. Christian Gonzalez and the Patriots secondary is coming off a tough day against Houston and will need to rebound in London. Gonzalez could see a lot of the rookie Thomas while Jonathan Jones is tasked with tracking Kirk when the Patriots are in man coverage. Regardless of the matchups, the Patriots will need to get some pressure on Lawrence to disrupt his timing, which has been his problem for much of the season.

Special Teams – Edge: Patriots

The Patriots continue to be inconsistent on special teams with some occasional lapses marring otherwise promising plays. Bryce Baringer has been outstanding most of the year, but he turned in a low 41-yard punt early against Houston that was returned 19 yards into Patriots territory by Steven Sims. Sione Takitaki was called for a penalty when he left too early on the opening kickoff, and JaMycal Hasty failed to cross the 30-yard line on any of his six kick returns. But Joey Slye and Baringer have been effective, and Brenden Schooler leads a coverage unit that has been solid for the most part. Jacksonville counters with Cam Little, who has connected on 10 of 11 field goals and all 11 PATs. Punter Logan Cooke hasn’t been as busy as Baringer but has been every bit as good, averaging 51.1 yards per kick with a 46.1-yard net with 10 placed inside the opponents’ 20 without a single touchback. Jacksonville’s return game took a hit when Devin Duvernay was placed on injured reserve, leaving Parker Washington to handle both kicks and punts. Washington has only two attempts on punts but averages 13.5 yards per return.