Our form expert tipped Yorkshire Cup winner Giavellotto on Friday and he has three selections for the ITV action at Newbury and Newmarket on Saturday afternoon.
The Verdict: Saturday, May 18
1pt win Mister Sketch in 2.25 Newbury at 8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt win Gorak in 2.40 Newmarket at 8/1 (Hills, 15/2 General)
1pt win Individualism in 3.00 Newmarket at 10/1 (bet365, 9/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Individualism stands out on his own
It’s the first Group 1 of the season for the older horses in Britain on Saturday as Big Rock and Inspiral lead the field for the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes over the mile at Newbury.
Who could forget Big Rock’s sensational victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day, a powerful performance that elevated him to the status of outstanding miler.
That was his last run, but he’s changed yards to Maurizio Guarnieri’s from Christopher Head since then, while his Ascot demolition job came on testing ground.
He does have form on good ground – he was second to brilliant Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Ace Impact on such conditions in the Prix du Jockey Club – and if he turns up within 5lb of his best he will probably win this.
There’s plenty of guesswork involved as to how ready he will be for this early-season assignment, but knowing what he could do I don’t really want to take him on and there are better bets to be had on the undercard.
The best betting race of the day is the Trade Nation London Gold Cup Handicap at 3.00, so often a race that is a platform for future Group horses and the likes of Chantilly, King’s Gambit and Goodwood Odyssey will have such ambitions.
However, the best handicapped horse in the race could well be Charlie Johnston’s INDIVIDUALISM and though there has already been support for him he’s still worth backing at anything 8/1 and above.
This half-brother to Ascot Gold Cup winner Subjectivist is 0/5 for his career but his first four runs were over seven furlongs at two and he ran some highly-credible races considering the trip.
Indeed, his fifth in a Newmarket novice in November came behind the 104-rated Zoum Zoum, Newmarket maiden winner Kikkuli, the 94-rated Balmacara and this week’s explosive Dante winner Economics.
The mark of 78 he has been allotted could be very lenient and while he was beaten off that rating over a mile at Musselburgh on his latest start he bumped into another smart horse in Ice Max and he was well clear of the third. Silent Move, the fifth home, has since come out and won at Haydock.
Stepping up to 10 furlongs looks sure to unlock more improvement and from stall one under Joe Fanning he can make a bold bid off a light weight in a race the Johnston yard have previous in.
The Verdict: Back INDIVIDUALISM in the 3.00 Newbury
Don’t miss Mister in the Carnarvon
Earlier on the card Eve Johnson Houghton’s MISTER SKETCH appeals dropping in trip to six furlongs in the Listed Highclere Castle Gin Carnarvon Stakes.
This is a drop in class for the son of Territories after his seasonal reappearance in the Group 3 Greenham Stakes, where he caught the eye back in sixth after finding trouble in the run.
On that evidence he’s retained his ability and sprinting looks a good call with him as he’s from a speedy family and he likes tracking a stronger gallop than he’ll face over seven and a mile.
Three of his four starts have come at Newbury and he goes well here, his neck defeat to James’s Delight (also runs here) on debut and his very good second in the Mill Reef reading well in this company.
The Mill Reef has worked out well this spring with Newmarket winners Seven Questions and Haatem finishing behind Mister Sketch that day and he looks likely to take a big leap forward from his seasonal reappearance.
The Verdict: Back MISTER SKETCH in the 2.25 Newbury
Back Gorak at Newmarket
Finally, Charlie Fellowes’ GORAK looks worth a bet in the trustatrader.com Handicap over seven furlongs at Newmarket.
This horse blew his mark when he finished a close-up fourth in a Group 3 at Haydock last June, the handicapper shunting him up from 86 to 105 and he struggled thereafter.
However, he ran a cracker in the Bunbury Cup beaten less than five lengths in seventh off 105 and he’s found himself 10lb lower now which makes him of interest again.
His reappearance fourth at Newmarket came in a red-hot seven-furlong handicap that featured subsequent winners Percy’s Lad and Misty Grey, while Northern Express, who finished a place behind him, should’ve won at York on Thursday.
He’s versatile ground-wise and if he comes on for his first run as expected he should be running a big race.
The Verdict: Back GORAK in the 2.40 Newmarket
Preview posted at 1545 BST on 17/05/2024
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