Bowen: It’s time for Trevor Lawrence, Drake London and others to show what they can do

It’s Week 1 of the 2024 fantasy football season, and every manager has a loaded roster, right?

My cousin Michael has told me this in early September for over a decade now. He has the team to win it. That’s how I see my squad in our 10-team home league this season, too. Fresh off the Labor Day weekend draft, I’m stacked at wide receiver — Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown and Puka Nacua — and I also drafted the upside of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson in the fifth round.

I’ll see you in the championship game, Michael.

We think we know who’s going to be good and who’s not, but truthfully, none of us have all the answers. I still have a fair share of fantasy questions as we head into the Week 1 slate based on player usage and, especially, offensive deployment, which are key factors that determine fantasy value. So, let’s dive into that today, focusing on six situations I’ll be monitoring this week and throughout the start of the season.

Lawrence looked really sharp on his preseason tape. He plays in a very QB-friendly Jacksonville Jaguars offense under coach Doug Pederson, one that could probably add more designed rushes to his résumé. And the club did rebuild its wide receiver room after the departure of Calvin Ridley, adding big-play rookie Brian Thomas Jr. via the draft and the vertical stretch ability of Gabe Davis in free agency.

So, why did Lawrence register an ADP of QB18 at ESPN this draft season?

That seems awfully low to me, especially when we point to Lawrence’s high-level traits and uptick in production at the end of last season. From Weeks 11 to 18, Lawrence averaged 19.9 fantasy points pre game — including three games of 24 or more points — while throwing 12 touchdowns and adding four rushing scores.

Sure, Lawrence has a tough Week 1 matchup this Sunday versus the Miami Dolphins defense, which keeps him in the midtier QB2 ranks to start the season. I get that. However, in an underrated — and potentially very explosive — Jags offense, there’s a path here for Lawrence to end the season as a top-10 quarterback.

Ever since the Houston Texans traded for Stefon Diggs this offseason to pair with Nico Collins, there has been a sense that Dell is strictly a No. 3 WR for quarterback C.J. Stroud. That has been reflected in fantasy drafts, too, as both Collins (WR14) and Diggs (WR20) were targeted much earlier than Dell (WR30). But let’s not forget about Dell’s electric movement skills and ability to produce on marginal target volume.

Last season, Dell broke his leg in Week 13, but from Weeks 1 to 12, he averaged 16.5 points with seven touchdown grabs. There’s also breakout ability here, as Dell notched four games with 20 or more points. He can do it without huge volume, too. Just look at his Week 3 breakout performance last season in Jacksonville, when he scored 25.5 points, catching five of seven targets for 145 yards and a score.

Remember, Dell plays in a heavily schemed pass game under coordinator Bobby Slowik, one that will also create isolation opportunities on the perimeter. And that’s where Dell can use those movement skills to set up and beat one-on-one coverage. He’s a flex starter in all formats, with the juice to give you viable numbers in the lineup on five or six targets per week.

I have Williams ranked as fringe QB1 for the Week 1 matchup versus the Tennessee Titans. Maybe that’s a stretch for a rookie making his first pro start, but I’m betting on his ability as a natural creator in an offense that could move the pocket more at Soldier Field on Sunday.

Why? Because of new Tennessee defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson, one of my former teammates in Washington. Wilson has a brilliant football mind, and I would expect the Titans to really make Williams work post-snap with late movement, disguise and simulated pressures. He’s going to see a lot that didn’t show up this preseason or in Pac-12 games.

This is where Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron can put Williams in a position to get on the edges, creating defined reads and shot-play opportunities, which also opens the door for the quarterback to use his legs. This is a great test for Williams to start the season, and one in which he will also have to make plays outside of structure to produce numbers for your fantasy lineup.

It’s time for Drake London to produce

London has averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game in his first two NFL seasons, catching of total of just six touchdowns in 33 games played. Sure, we can point to the offensive struggles and the poor quarterback play in Atlanta during that stretch. We all understand that.

However, with the Falcons signing Kirk Cousins this offseason and installing a new offensive system under coordinator Zac Robinson that should cater to more passing production, it’s time for London to show us what he can do. His potential, or at least the upside, has been reflected in his ADP (WR15), which has him ahead of DK Metcalf, Brandon Aiyuk, DJ Moore, DeVonta Smith and others.

So, what do I want to see from London in Week 1 against a really good Pittsburgh Steelers defense? A game plan that creates intermediate windows to run the in-breakers off play-action. Rhythm throws for Cousins. More work inside for London as a power slot target, plus the red zone throws (with schemed matchups) that give him scoring opportunities. In short, I want London to be deployed as a three-level volume target, with the numbers to back it up.

Sorting out the Bengals backfield

This is a tough one. Sure, Zack Moss is your classic north-south grinder who should see rushing volume as an early-down back. That includes goal line carries for a Cincinnati Bengals offense (with Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup) that can move the ball. In eight starts for the Colts last season, Moss posted three games with 20 or more fantasy points, while also seeing at least 18 carries in six games. That fits here in terms of how we expect Moss to be used in the game plan.

But I’m also looking at Chase Brown, who had a higher ADP than Moss, as a viable option because of his versatility and receiving traits. Yes, Brown can find daylight as a runner, and he has the contact balance to tack on extra yards. The upside here is Brown’s ability to work as an underneath outlet or screen target in the pass game for quarterback Joe Burrow. Last season, Brown averaged 14.4 yards per catch on screen receptions.

As we head into the Bengals’ Week 1 game against the Patriots, I see deeper-league flex value for both Moss and Brown in fantasy lineups.

Packers wide receivers to keep on the radar

The Green Bay Packers have a deep and dynamic wide receiver room to go with a quarterback in Jordan Love who can attack all three levels of the field. Both Christian Watson and Jayden Reed were mid-to-late-round draft targets for fantasy managers, which I get. A healthy Watson can stretch the field and run away from coverage on crossers, and has explosive-play ability. And Reed showed his versatility as a rookie last season by posting eight games with 15 or more points.

But let’s also keep an eye on Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks on Friday night in Brazil versus the Philadelphia Eagles. Doubs caught eight touchdowns last season, with double-digit fantasy production in nine games. Meanwhile, Wicks played his best football at the end of the season, posting double-digit numbers in four of his final six games, highlighted by a career-high 24.1 fantasy points in Week 18 against the Bears. If you play in a league with at least 10 teams, both receivers are potential streaming options or waiver adds this season.