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Fantasy Football Week 15 Start Sit Decisions: Drake London breakout spot

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Fantasy Football Week 15 Start Sit Decisions: Drake London breakout spot

Quarterback

Start: Bo Nix, Broncos

Since Week 8, Nix is Pro Football Focus’s No. 7 graded passer. He ranks ninth in EPA per play and 13th in CPOE over that stretch. Nix is averaging 266 yards, two scores, and 21 fantasy points over his past six contests. He gets a Colts defense that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

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Start: Bryce Young, Panthers

Young ranks ninth in EPA per play and PFF passing grade over the past five weeks and is posting 16.4 fantasy points per game. That would be good for the QB16 on the season, putting him firmly on the streaming radar. A matchup with a Dallas defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing passers has him just outside the QB1 ranks.

Sit: Caleb Williams, Bears

The Thomas Brown experience came screeching to a halt last week with sleepy 16.1 fantasy points from Williams, nearly all of which came in the second half of a blowout loss to the 49ers. Williams threw for 134 yards and two scores at 5.4 yards per attempt. Pro Football Focus graded Williams as the worst passer of the week. Vegas isn’t projecting a rebound and has the Bears as seven-point road underdogs to Minnesota. The Vikings’ defense ranks fifth in EPA per dropback allowed. Chicago’s implied team total of 18.25 points is substantially lower than Desmond Ridder’s Raiders.

Sit: Anthony Richardson, Colts

Richardson has been a better real-life quarterback and fantasy option since returning to the lineup. His accuracy metrics are on the rise and he is running more. Despite this, he is still not in a place where you want to start him in the fantasy quarterfinals. The Colts have taken the air out of the football with Ant under center, registering a -13% pass rate over expected in his recent stretch as a starter.

That has resulted in a ceiling of 30 pass attempts for the young quarterback. He is averaging 184 yards and one touchdown through the air in his past three games.

Running Back

Start: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys

The Panthers have given up 268 more rushing yards to running backs than any other team this season. They also lead the league in rushing touchdowns allowed at 15. Only the Cowboys rank worse in EPA per rush attempt faced on defense. Dowdle has cemented himself as the face of the Dallas backfield and now gets a premium matchup with a soft defense. It’s RB1 SZN for him.

Start: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers

Game script hasn’t been kind to Hubbard this year. The Panthers have three wins—none of which were decided by more than six points—and five losses decided by three or more possessions. When Panthers games have been close, Hubbard has been an RB1.

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Carolina is favored at home by a field goal this week. It’s their first and presumably only game as a favorite this year.

Sit: Najee Harris, Steelers

This is not the week to bank on a Steelers back getting home on the ground. By virtue of winning nearly every game, the Eagles have faced the sixth-fewest running back carries this year. They have allowed slightly more targets to running backs than the average team, but that’s not where Harris gets his touches. He is coming off season-lows in routes rate (21 percent) and target share (he didn’t see a target). Jaylen Warren sees most of the work in passing situations and the Steelers are 5.5-point road dogs.

Sit: Travis Etienne, Jaguars

Etienne was fully supplanted by Tank Bigsby in Week 14. Bigsby out-carried him 18-4 and has been the better option between the tackles all year.

Yards after contact Missed tackles forced Rush yards over expected
Tank Bigsby 4.1 0.3 1.15
Travis Etienne 2.3 0.12 -0.05

Bigsby leads the way in nearly every metric. Etienne is nothing more than a passing-downs specialist heading into Week 15.

Wide Receiver

Start: Drake London, Falcons

No one wants to hear this. I don’t want to write it. But the Falcons have a 24-point implied team total. That’s higher than the Chiefs and Dolphins. They get a Raiders defense that ranks 27th in EPA per dropback allowed and has faced the second-highest pass rate over expected. London is 10th in target share and 17th in air yards share. Kirk Cousins might be cooked, but this is a get-right spot for the passing attack.

Start: Adam Thielen, Panthers

Thielen has taken over as the Panthers’ top receiver since returning from injured reserve. He accounted for 34 percent of the team’s targets and 38 percent of the air yards last week while running a route on 85 percent of Bryce Young’s dropbacks. Thielen holds PFF’s No. 12 receiving grade over the past three weeks and ranks 18th in yards per route run.

Sit: Keenan Allen, Bears

DJ Moore’s recent surge in targets has come directly out of Allen’s pocket. Allen had 24 targets in Thomas Brown’s first two games as the interim OC/HC. Moore was being used almost exclusively on screens, limiting his target-earning potential. His aDOT has shot up from 1.9 in those two games to 8.4 over the past two weeks. In turn, his target share is skyrocketing while Allen’s is down to 22 percent in his previous pair of games. That has resulted in 13 total targets. Averaging a dreadful 5.7 yards per target, Allen needs a higher floor of opportunities to stay in the WR2 ranks.

Sit: Malik Nabers, Giants

Nabers is coming off his lowest target share (23 percent) since Week 1 and his third-lowest air yards share (32 percent) of the season. It might be a coincidence, but the fact that his volume metrics all took substantial hits right after he suffered a hip flexor injury is more than a little concerning. Most troubling is the Giants’ laughably low team total of 13.25.

Nabers is a long-shot to score this week and now has minor volume questions. He is barely hanging onto his WR2 rank, taking him out of the must-start range.

Tight End

Start: Sam LaPorta, Lions

LaPorta has quietly rebounded over the second half of the season. James Williams’ breakout appeared to be putting a squeeze on LaPorta’s targets and his best showing of the year coming during Williams’ suspension all but confirmed that. The tides have shifted in Detroit since Williams returned. From Week 10 onward, LaPorta has earned 18 percent of the Lions’ targets and 23 percent of the air yards. He is responsible for 40 percent of the team’s end zone targets during that stretch, resulting in TE1 finishes in 3-of-4 contests.

Start: Juwan Johnson, Saints

With the Saints down to castoffs at wide receiver, Johnson is taking on an expanded role. He has run a route on 79 percent of the Saints’ dropbacks over the past two weeks and has earned a team-high 18 percent target share. Johnson has run 40 percent of his routes from an outside alignment and another 20 percent of his routes have come from the slot. A team’s No. 1 receiver is eligible at tight end and you’re going to let him languish on your bench?

Sit: Kyle Pitts, Falcons

It’s Joever for Pitts. He has a 72 percent route rate over his past five games and has seen 11 percent of the Falcons’ targets during that stretch. He has one game over 2.4 fantasy points in his past five appearances and last topped nine points in Week 8.

Sit: Cade Otton, Bucs

Otton doesn’t have “the juice” when Mike Evans is active. Over the past three weeks, Otton has earned 16 percent of the Bucs’ targets and is averaging 6.7 points per game. He has been targeted on 15 percent of his routes. Otton has not hit 12 PPR points in a game Evans has finished this year.

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