Matt Brocklebank runs the rule over the seven horses in Saturday’s Betfred St Leger at Doncaster.
DEIRA MILE (Owen Burrows)
Timeform have him 8lb shy of market leader Illinois so the Camelot colt has his work to do on ratings, but he is at least still relatively unexposed after just three starts so far this season. Built on his comeback win in a small Windsor novice to run a huge race when fourth in the Derby and probably needed his latest run after a break back at Windsor last month. The small field and tactical nature of that race will be a world away from what he’s likely to encounter at the weekend, and a more strongly-run contest over this longer trip might just unlock further improvement. Experience of the track from his juvenile days won’t do him any harm either.
GROSVENOR SQUARE (Aidan O’Brien)
Didn’t come up to scratch in the Chester Vase or Irish Derby but must have had a few early-season niggles as he wasn’t seen all too often. Has taken his form to new heights over a mile and three-quarters with a Group 2 second behind Tower Of London and striking 20-length victory in a Curragh Group 3 on his two latest starts and hard to imagine his arc of improvement has come to an end there. Stamina clear his forte and handles all types of ground, although might cope better than some if it comes up particularly testing.
ILLINOIS (Aidan O’Brien)
Largely progressive since a disappointing comeback run on heavy ground at Leopardstown in April, winning only once from five starts in total this year but showing a fine attitude to land the Queen’s Vase over Saturday’s trip at Ascot in June. Probably a new career best when beaten a neck by Los Angeles in the Great Voltigeur and he looks nailed on to run well again given the likely conditions.
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JAN BRUEGHEL (Aidan O’Brien)
Fought on tenaciously after briefly looking in trouble when beating Bellum Justum in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last month and the runner-up has since won a nice pot over in America. As an unbeaten son of Galileo from Ballydoyle, he clearly has an awful lot going for him including a stout staying pedigree (one brother, Dawn Rising, won the Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot last summer). Needs to pull out a tad more to win this, though.
SUNWAY (David Menuisier)
Could probably have done with a bit more rain in the forecast as he appeared to find Group 1 company on good to firm going a bit too hot to handle in the King George at Ascot last time out. Has been kept fresh for a crack at this prize back against his own age group and promises to be well suited to a thorough stamina test, while his three-quarter-length second to Los Angeles in the Irish Derby reads quite well in the context of this field. Might just find one or two too good, which has been the case for him most of the season.
WILD WAVES (Andrew Balding)
Progressive three-year-old from a leading yard but he’s stepping out of handicap company to take on his first Group-race assignment in a Classic and was beaten into fourth off a mark of 92 in the Sky Bet Melrose at York last time. Clearly has his work cut out on that evidence and likely to be ridden to pick up a share of the place money if others don’t quite see it out.
YOU GOT TO ME (Ralph Beckett)
Fascinating, much-needed addition to the race and connections should be applauded for stumping up the £50,000 supplementary fee. She’s certainly not without a chance having improved to win the Irish Oaks and gone down fighting behind Curragh runner-up Content at York last month. Strong chance she’ll stay the trip well enough based on pedigree and the fact she’s not racing quite as keenly as at the start of the season. Decent weather forecast looks a plus for the filly too so no reason she won’t be closely involved at the finish.
Verdict
Aidan O’Brien being responsible for three of the seven runners in Saturday’s Leger doesn’t make it easy for punters but I’m not sure Illinois should be quite as short as he is in the betting.
The two who appeal against him are Deira Mile and the supplemented YOU GOT TO ME.
Owen Burrows’ horse will need to leave his latest Windsor run miles behind to be competitive but might just do so given a strong pace to chase and a move up in trip on decent ground.
However, Ralph Beckett looks to have injected some much-needed excitement into the big race by supplementing the Classic-winning filly You Got To Me, who didn’t do her reputation any harm in defeat behind Content in the Yorkshire Oaks last month.
She really dug deep to overhaul eventual third Emily Upjohn that day, only to be pipped by the winner who may have been operating on the best part of the track towards the far rail. On that basis she’s going to relish the extra couple of furlongs on offer at Doncaster and Beckett – who won the Leger with a three-year-old filly in 2015 (Simple Verse) general does extremely well with such types towards the end of the year.
Updated at 1800 BST on 12/09/24
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