Some quality all-weather action comes under the spotlight as Matt Brocklebank looks to unearth the value at Kempton and Chelmsford this Saturday.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 175pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Saturday April 6
1pt win Duc De Kent in 2.40 Kempton at 25/1 (bet365, BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Circuit Breaker in 3.15 Kempton at 17/2 (William Hill)
1pt win Bracken’s Laugh in 3.30 Chelmsford at 8/1 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
A couple of quality handicaps from Kempton make most appeal from a betting point of view this weekend and the first to tackle is the Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Rosebery Handicap.
This can often act as a springboard for some of the better middle-distance handicappers starting out their campaigns before switching to turf, and the one from that bracket who absolutely leaps off the page is Andrew Balding’s Old Harrovian.
A lightly-raced five-year-old, he wasn’t seen at all as a juvenile before running just the once at three when well beaten by New London in a warm Newmarket race at the Craven meeting. He was swiftly gelded and missed the best part of a year before returning to action on the all-weather last spring and made up for lost time with back-to-back novice victories over a mile and a half at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, showing a real liking for the synthetic surface.
Old Harrovian was then pitched in at Group 3 level back on turf in Newbury’s Aston Park Stakes and although sixth of seven in the end, he didn’t do a whole lot wrong from a prominent position and I don’t really see why he was dropped a pound (to his current mark of 93) considering the 119-rated Yibir was fourth and every other horse in the field had BHA marks of 103 or above.
Anyway, he’s clearly one Balding can get ready after a layoff and the relatively testing mile and three furlongs on this course looks tailormade for him. But, the bottom line is all of that is well accounted for in the betting (11/4 generally at time of writing) and it’s quite tempting to find an each-way alternative.
Intinso was visually impressive when landing the odds on his comeback at Wolverhampton but he’s another well found in the market at 4s and the value lies with DUC DE KENT, who was beaten eight and a half lengths by the Gosden horse at Wolves last month.
However, that certainly doesn’t tell the whole story as Duc De Kent – having his first run in Britain after a winter spell out in Bahrain since joining Ian Williams from France – was sent off an 80/1 shot and didn’t have a great early position, towards the back of the field off a slow gallop.
He was looking to make up some ground before being hampered as Nolton Cross slipped right in front of him around two furlongs from the finish, and Dougie Costello wisely brought Duc De Kent home in his own time in the straight.
Effectively running from a mark of 94 last time (2lb wrong), he gets in here off 90, meaning he’s fully 12lb better off with Intinso, and I’d fully expect him to close the gap quite considerably on those terms if granted a clearer passage.
He won over 10 furlongs on an all-weather surface at Cagnes-Sur-Mer last February which obviously bodes well and he’s certain to get a strong pace to aim at here, the booking of William Buick and stall three just small additional bonuses really when weighing up this horse’s chances.
Williams has been known to pull the odd early-season rabbit from his hat and I reckon this one is underestimated around the 25/1 mark.
Circuit can lead them a merry dance
In the Virgin Bet Queen’s Prize Handicap, I’m struggling to get away from bottom weight CIRCUIT BREAKER from stall one under James Doyle.
Doyle is a superb judge of pace at most venues but he’s particularly deadly from the front at Kempton and there has to be a chance he goes out to try and make all on this four-year-old.
He was prominent from an early stage before winning well over this course and distance on September 9 and he backed that up when second to Urban Outlook on soft ground at Haydock later that month.
He looked all about stamina dropped back to a mile and three-quarters that day, just pegged back close home by a horse who went on to finish second off 6lb higher in a valuable race at York in October.
Circuit Breaker, who changed hands for 260,000 guineas in the autumn and now starts out for trainer Jonjo O’Neill, has only been nudged up another 2lb – meaning he’s just 6lb higher than for that ready course success – and it looks significant his new connections are coming here as he was presumably sent to O’Neill with a jumps career in mind at some stage.
He doesn’t have many runners on the level and his overall strike-rate in this sphere isn’t particularly inspiring but recent NH form suggests the horses are in very good nick and I think the positive factors counteract any potential issues.
The initial thought was to give Chelmsford’s televised Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes a swerve, but I’m happy enough to take on Aidan O’Brien’s Capulet.
He has the best form in the race on account of his Royal Lodge third behind Guineas-bound Ghostwriter but taking really short prices about Ballydoyle three-year-olds in April isn’t my bag at all and there’s scope to take him on given the potential on show elsewhere.
Redhot Whisper (40/1) and Bergamasco (18/1) deserve a mention at long odds and the latter has race-fitness on his side too, but I reckon the biggest danger to the selection will be BRACKEN’S LAUGH.
Richard Hughes, who is in flying form with nine winners from 21 starters in the past fortnight, saw fit to pitch this son of Zoffany into the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his second run after making a winning debut in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark at Newbury in September, and he performed with real credit.
In the end the 10-furlong trip and very soft ground found him out at such an early stage of his career, but Bracken’s Laugh travelled well for a long way and didn’t look out of place in a race won by Los Angeles, who is only around 16/1 for the Derby.
Dropping back to a mile looks a good starting point on this track, where Hughes has a 20% strike-rate in the past five seasons (level stakes profit close to £70), and I’m surprised he’s a much bigger price than the recent Newcastle one-three, Cuban Tiger and Orne.
Published at 1600 GMT on 05/04/24
Click here for full Value Bet record from the column’s inception
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