It’s the third and final day of York’s Dante Festival and Matt Brocklebank has three horses he’s keen to back at big prices.
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- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 165pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Friday May 17
1pt win King’s Code in 2.45 York at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Theme Park in 2.45 York at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Giavellotto in 3.45 York at 7/1 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Lotto winner again?
All the buzz ahead of Friday’s Boodles Yorkshire Cup Stakes has centred around the match-up between Aidan O’Brien’s Tower Of London and the Willie Mullins-trained Vauban, but that’s left last year’s winner GIAVELLOTTO looking a big price as he bids for a repeat success on the Knavesmire.
Giavellotto is clearly no Stradivarius – the last horse to go back-to-back in the Yorkshire Cup – but there was no fluke about his 2023 half-length defeat of Eldar Eldarov, who went on to win the Group 1 Irish St. Leger later in the campaign, and Marco Botti’s horse underlined his liking for this venue when third behind Coltrane and Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami in the Lonsdale Cup at the Ebor meeting in August.
The extended two miles arguably just stretches his stamina, but he’s put up two good efforts against Tower Of London earlier this year, beaten a length into third when conceding the winner 6lb in Saudi Arabia in February, before finishing fifth to the same horse on the same terms in the Dubai Gold Cup.
One of Giavellotto’s reins snapped close home apparently and while that doesn’t seem to have had much of an impact on the result, the key fact is that he’s now getting weight from the penalised Tower Of London so enjoys a 9lb pull after being beaten a length at Riyadh and less than four lengths last time at Meydan.
Oisin Murphy – on board for the excellent run two starts back – returns to this saddle this week and I like the idea of him potentially getting first run on the marker leaders which could make the selection hard to cut down.
Code looks a cracking price
Earlier on, we’re obviously dealing with a load of lightly-raced fillies open to any amount of improvement in the Clipper EBF Marygate Fillies’ Stakes, but I couldn’t put anyone off Clive Cox’s Magic Mild, who must have loads of ability to almost win last month’s Newmarket maiden despite falling out of the stalls.
That often-informative race is already working out, with fourth home Seraphim Angel winning the Lily Agnes at Chester and sixth Miss Rascal easily landing a maiden at Ascot, and although she’s got to turn the form around with winner It Ain’t Two, I can see £100,000 Havana Grey filly Magic Mild comfortably doing just that with her debut experience to draw upon.
The remaining Friday fancies both comes in the 10-furlong Knights Solicitors Handicap, in which Botanical dominates the betting.
He returns for his seasonal debut off a 10lb higher mark than when beating the Lincoln winner Mr Professor at Hamilton in October and could still be some way ahead of his mark, but he’s entitled to come on for the run and might have wanted a little more rain earlier this week in an ideal world.
KING’S CODE, by contrast, may not have a whole lot in hand but could hardly be more race-fit as he’s been on the go for months and has had a run back on turf at Newmarket earlier this month too, when beaten sixth lengths by the classy Liberty Lane.
He’s been dropped 2lb on the back of that which looks quite reasonable as he didn’t look to be operating in the best part of the track as it turned out, and he was running on in typically determined fashion after not appearing to be completely at home running down into the Dip (bombed out on only previous Rowley Mile visit in November).
King’s Code had a fantastic time of things on the all-weather over the winter, winning at Wolverhampton, Southwell and Kempton from marks of 82, 85 and 88 and although seemingly in need of another small PB to emerge in front here off 91, he was unlucky not to go extremely close when denied a clear run and beaten less than two lengths into fourth at Wolverhampton in March. That suggests he’s still on a decent perch.
David Evan’s four-year-old remains unexposed over a mile and a quarter and he’s only had the one try in a visor too, so further improvement might be in the offing from stall one under that man Murphy.
Stroll in the Park…
Nigel Tinker’s THEME PARK is also worth having on side in the same event and I reckon he’s only such a big price as he was last of 10 over a totally inadequate seven furlongs on his Newcastle reappearance.
Scrap that effort and you could argue he should be half his current 25/1 as he ran well when sixth at this meeting 12 months ago (over seven furlongs) and then filled the runner-up spot in his two subsequent visits to York, including when beaten a neck off his current mark of 83 over a mile in here September.
He’s had just the two starts over 10 furlongs in his life and was a running-on third over this trip at Chester last summer, while he’s another bred to cope well with middle-distances so I’ve no issues over stamina. In fact, he could step up quite considerably for a return to further this spring/summer and it wouldn’t be a huge shock to learn that local trainer Tinkler has had an eye on this valuable prize for a while.
Down at Newbury, the Unibet Handicap also makes the ITV line-up and I’m a fan of James Fanshawe’s Cracksking second time out this season, though it’s hard to argue he’s being missed in the market around 11/2 so I’ll pass and stick with the three from York.
Published at 1600 BST on 16/05/24
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