Jaguars vs. Bears: Week 6 NFL Picks for American Football in London

The Jaguars and Bears are doing battle in London on Sunday morning. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jaguars Team Breakdown

The Jaguars had a disastrous start to their season, but have bounced back in recent weeks. They looked markedly competitive against the Texans two weeks ago, and then finally picked up their first win last week against the Colts. Their offense has looked completely different over the past two weeks. Trevor Lawrence is finding a real connection with rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr., who went for 122 receiving yards last week.

Not to mention, Jacksonville has had a solid running game all season. Their offense ranks sixth in the NFL in rush EPA, partially thanks to the emergence of Tank Bigsby. Travis Etienne was the starting running back coming into the season, but against Houston, Bigsby out-gained Etienne on fewer carries. He was then was given the reins against Indianapolis.

Bigsby shredded the Colts’ defense for 101 yards and two touchdowns on 7.8 YPC. Bigsby has added a new element to this offense that has allowed Trevor Lawrence more freedom at quarterback.

Bears Team Breakdown

Over the past two weeks, Caleb Williams has been the third-best quarterback in the NFL, measuring by EPA+CPOE composite. Williams has really found his groove and that has caused the Bears to win their past two games. D’Andre Swift is emerging as the star out of the backfield that Chicago had hoped he would be as well. The threat in the run game and in the short passing game from the running back has given Caleb Williams an extra security blanket and has helped improve his play.

Defensively, the Bears have been great all year. The unit is fourth in the NFL in EPA/play and fifth in total success rate. They have been the best pass defense in the NFL by EPA, but have struggled against the rush, ranking 21st in EPA there. However, the Bears will likely be without two starters from that elite secondary for this game. Safety Jaquan Brisker has already been ruled out with a concussion, and CB Tyrique Stevenson is doubtful with a calf injury. Those two players missing out would be a major blow to this defense.

Pick and Prediction

These offenses are both trending up after slow starts to the season. Over the first three weeks of the season, the Jaguars’ offense was 25th in the NFL in EPA/play and the Bears’ offense was 28th. Over the last two weeks, the Bears’ offense is 7th in the NFL in EPA/play and the Jaguars’ offense is 9th. Caleb Williams is really starting to find his groove and Trevor Lawrence is connecting better with some of his new targets. Both teams should be able to move the ball through the air in this game.

However, in London games, rookie quarterbacks have historically struggled. The travel and everything that comes with the London game has proved a challenge in the five games that rookie QBs have started. Rookie starting QBs are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS in London. The Jaguars have become “London’s team” and they will be playing back-to-back weeks in London for the second straight season. Trevor Lawrence has four career starts in London and is 3-1 SU and ATS in those games. The experience in London should give Lawrence and the Jaguars an advantage.

Trevor Lawrence should be able to take advantage of the depleted Chicago secondary and hit some big passing plays down the field. The Jaguars should also sustain a decent rushing attack against the Bears. Caleb Williams is proving to be worthy of his #1 pick status, but with all of the variables that come with the London game, he could have some struggles. Ultimately, the experienced team in this environment will get the win so I am taking the Jaguars +1.5.

Best Bet: Jaguars +1.5

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.