NFL betting tips: Week 5 picks with London calling – Best Spread, Total, Player Props and TD Scorer

The first month of the season is in the books and we’re left with just two unbeaten teams, the Chiefs who beat some big teams on their way to 4-0 were still quite easy to predict.

But in the NFC, the Sam Darnold-led Minnesota Vikings weren’t high on anyone’s list as the final unbeaten team in their conference. They had beaten the 49ers and Texans quite easily and smashed the Packers in the division last week before taking their foot off the gas at 28-0 up.

The Chiefs play on Sunday night this week against the Saints in a game they’re likely to win while the Vikings make their way across the pond as the designated home team in London at Tottenham Hotspur stadium as they play the New York Jets.

Many believe Aaron Rodgers to be among the top 10 quarterbacks of all time, so if you’re going today, appreciate that you get to see him in person before he retires in a year or two.

For those attending the game, I hope you enjoy it. I went to the Bills London game at Spurs last season, and it was by some way the best atmosphere I’ve seen and heard at a game over here. If you’re not going it’s on ITV kicking off at 1430GMT.

London NFL Game: Jets +2.5 vs. Vikings; 41

London games tend to be quite hard to predict and in general, low-scoring affairs and I’m not sure that will change in this one as we’ve got two of the best defenses in the league this year taking the field.

The Jets were hoping that the signing of Rodgers would be all they need to get over the hump with their stellar defense restricting things on the other side of the ball and it might be, but scoring nine points against the Denver Broncos last week suggests that they might be a bit further away than they thought.

They come into this one at 2-2 after their defeat last week and don’t seem to be quite clicking yet with Rodgers starting his first games for the team. The run-game should be good with Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen sharing the work there, and they’ve got Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and Rodgers’ best mate Allen Lazard through the air, so should be able to move the ball well there, too.

But it’s just not there so far this season. That could change here, but it’s a tough defense to go up against.

The Vikings wouldn’t be where they are now if JJ McCarthy had stayed healthy, they were forced to start Sam Darnold and he’s proving he was worth the third overall pick that the team he faces today gave up for him in the 2018 Draft. Darnold has thrown the most TDs so far this season and sits third in QBR after the first month, a long way from seeing ghosts in New York.

It definitely helps having a solid run game with Aaron Jones and the best WR in the game in Justin Jefferson on the offense for him, Just Jeff has scored in every game so far this season and his matchup vs Sauce Gardner may well be the key to the game.

Jordan Addison returned from injury last week to score twice and adds a nice #2 behind Jefferson and Jalen Nailor had filled in well with three TDs in four games this season so far, with TJ Hockenson returning soon it looks like a well run offense.

It should be a good game in London, maybe not the highest scoring, but this looks like the best of the games on the London slate this season. I like the Unders, Vikings to cover and my bets for this one will be Mike Williams longest reception o17.5 yards (he has done that in his last 3 games) and Jordan Addison anytime TD, best priced at 11/4 at Bet365 and 888Sport.

Best Spread – Seahawks -6.5 vs Giants

After the London game, we settle back in, get Redzone on the TV and get through the evening kick-offs. Spreads have been tough to call this year, I feel I was on the right side with the Browns last week as they would have covered if not for a dodgy holding call negating a long TD, but they ended up losing and falling to 1-3 on the season.

This week, I’m taking a team, the Seattle Seahawks, at home against the beaten-up New York Giants. There is a big rest disadvantage against the Seahawks here as they played on Monday this week while the Giants had the weekend off after their Thursday night loss to the Cowboys. Still, it is back in Seattle, AND there’s some big injury news out of NY, which will seriously hamper their offense.

Daniel Jones struggles with a full-strength offense, so going up against a solid Seahawks defense without star rookie Malik Nabers and running back Devin Singletary will make it incredibly tough for the Giants to move the ball. Nabers has soaked up 38% of his team’s targets this season, so they will need to be replaced somehow, and they don’t have anyone near his skill level.

The Seahawks welcomed back Kenneth Walker last week and he finished with three TDs on the ground, he should do well against a poor Giants defense and Geno Smith should be able to find his trio of targets in Metcalf, Lockett and Smith-Njigba, it should be too much for the Giants and I’ll take the small hit on odds to move this off the seven back to the 6.5 it’s been all week.

Best Total – Cowboys vs Steelers u44

We’re heading to Sunday Night Football for our total this week as two of the most successful franchises in the league take the field with success looking quite a way off for them this season.

The Cowboys look a mess on defense and are struggling to get things going consistently on offense with only one real weapon in Ceedee Lamb, if you can keep him out of the game then you should be able to win the game as their offensive line is a long way from where it used to be and they can’t get a run game going with Rico Dowdle or Zeke Elliott. Dak Prescott is a good enough QB, but without much talent, and even less now Brandin Cook is on IR it’s not easy for them to get the offense moving.

The Steelers have a similar problem although Justin Fields has looked better in recent weeks, there’s just not much talent around him. George Pickens is very good but temperamental, Najee Harris is an adequate running back, and Friermuth is a decent enough tight end, but behind those three, there’s very little, so Fields has been running the ball more and doing it quite well.

The Steelers defense has been keeping them in games on the whole and TJ Watt looks like he may well get the DPOY award that he deserved last year, he should have a field day tonight.

Defense should be on top, especially the Steelers, so I’m taking the under here.

Best TD Scorer

Dontayvion Wicks – 8/5 (PaddyPower/Betfair)

Realistically it’s Derrick Henry who’s scored every week and is going up against a terrible Bengals run defense, he should find the endzone, but he’s priced at 4/7 so I won’t be putting him up on here.

I do like a high-scoring game in LA as the Rams host the Packers. Jordan Love has returned while it was in garbage time last week did put up a lot of points against a good Vikings defence, and this week gets to face one of the worst passing defences in the league.

He doesn’t have Christian Watson through injury or Romeo Doubs through childishness (He’s suspended by the team for moaning about contracts, role, trades), so they’re down to Jayden Reed who is a stud with Love under center and Dontayvion Wicks, who has shown he can handle a workload when needed.

Reed is down at evens, so I’m going for the higher odds of Wicks to find the endzone for the fourth time this season after a double last weekend.

Best Player Prop

Austin Ekeler o13.5 receiving yards

The Washington Commanders have been the surprise of the season so far as Jayden Daniels is setting records all over the shop for his numbers through the first month, which are higher than anyone else in terms of completion percentage. A lot of those started as passes behind or at the line of scrimmage and while they’ve opened up the playbook a bit more for him now, he still likes the dump-offs to his running backs and with Austin Ekeler, they’ve got one of the best pass-catching backs of the past few years.

He had a week off after getting a concussion against the Bengals but returns here with Brian Robinson alongside him. Coming in a little dinged up could mean more work for Ekeler, but even if it doesn’t, I like him to eclipse his betting line here in one go. He has 52, 47, and 22 (in one half) yards receiving so far this season. I love this line!

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