NFL London game under 40.5 points + four other Week 5 props

Each team has played (at least) four games, and if you’ve been paying attention as we have, you’ve learned a thing or two. For instance, the Kansas City Chiefs, as expected, are elite, while the Miami Dolphins are in deep trouble. The Minnesota Vikings look legit, even with journeyman Sam Darnold at quarterback, and the Philadelphia Eagles may be suffering from the same woes that ailed them a year ago on defense.

Plus, there are some downright awful NFL teams too. If you’re like us and want to put that knowledge to good use, then Week 5 is a good place to start. Here’s a look at some of our favorite NFL bets for Week 5 and why we intend to target each with the best lines from PA top sportsbooks.

1. New York Jets vs Minnesota Vikings: Under 40.5 Points

Best Odds/where to find them: -110 at BetMGM Sportsbook

Why you should bet this:

These have been two of the best defensive teams in football, and defense shouldn’t slump even as the squads trek across the pond for a date at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

It’s safe to bet Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner will be asked to keep No. 1 wide receiver Justin Jefferson in line, since Gardner is the consensus top corner in football. That’ll limit Minnesota’s offensive production and keep it relying on Aaron Jones and the ground game, which will keep the game moving.

New York also tends to play ugly games, with 41 or fewer points in three straight games, due to its offensive struggles. The Jets are putting up 19 points per game but have not scored more than 24 points in any game, and the Vikings have allowed 17 points or fewer in three of their four games – against brand-name competition like the 49ers and Texans.

This total is listed at 40 at many other sportsbooks, which means it will push it if ends 23-17 or 27-13 or somewhere in that range. But MGM is giving Under bettors the extra half point, at no odds punishment, which is why we recommend targeting the number there.

2. Cleveland Browns Cover +3.5 at Washington Commanders

Best Odds/where to find them: -115 at BetMGM Sportsbook

Why you should bet this:

This reeks of the old trap game for Washington, which has won three straight games and is coming off a 42-14 rout of the Arizona Cardinals in Glendale, Arizona.

Washington is 0-1 against a -3.5-point spread at home – its lone home game was a 21-18 win over the New York Giants in Week 2. Jayden Daniels frenzy is reaching a fevered frenzy, but are the Commanders mature enough to win a game they are expected to after reading weeks of clippings and their Beltway rival Baltimore Ravens looming next week?

Plus, the Browns defense should keep them in the game even though their offense has been one of the worst in football through four games – since it has the second-fewest yards in the league. But Deshaun Watson began building a rapport with receiver Jerry Jeudy on Sunday in Las Vegas and could exploit Washington’s pass defense, which ranks just 22nd in the league.

The Browns may win outright, but buying that hook with no odds punishment, is a must since many sportsbooks have Washington -3 as the spread.

3. Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots: Under 36.5 Points

Best Odds/where to find them: -110 at bet365 Sportsbook

Why you should bet this:

Hard as it is to believe, there is an offense worse than the Patriots’ this year. The Dolphins’ short-handed unit, playing without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, is 32nd in points per game (11.3) and still hasn’t led at any point in a game through four weeks.

Tyler Huntley expects to get a second straight start with Tagovailoa and backup Skylar Thompson out, and he led Miami to only 12 points against the Titans a week ago. New England’s defense is solid too, especially against the run, since the Pats are giving up just 99.3 rushing yards per game, the ninth-best mark in football.

Miami’s defense has been stout too even with its offensive woes, giving up the sixth-fewest yards per game (282) and fifth-fewest passing yards per game (162.5). The Dolphins should lock down the awful New England passing offense.

The winning team’s punter may end up being the most valuable player in this game, and the first to 14 may have enough to win. Thus, we’re in favor of backing the under in what should be, at best, a 20-14 game.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers Cover -1.5 Point Spread vs Dallas Cowboys

Best Odds/where to find them: -115 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Why you should bet this:

The Steelers have been one of the NFL’s pleasant surprises this season yet were doomed by a slow start in their 27-24 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. Though the Steelers stumbled to 3-1, the loss may end up benefiting them long term, since Justin Fields took over the game in the second half (12 for 21, 182 yards, 1 passing TD; 7 rushes, 41 yards and 2 rushing scores) and nearly guided Pittsburgh all the way back.

On the other hand, the Cowboys are coming off a narrow, 20-15 win over the New York Giants that may end up being the most costly victory in the league this year. Dallas lost two elite defensive players, Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, to injury, plus No. 2 wide receiver Brandin Cooks.

Cooks and Lawrence are both out, and Lawrence was placed on IR. Parsons is being called “week-to-week,” though he hasn’t officially been ruled out of Sunday night’s game. Still, losing those stalwart defenders from a defense that still is missing playmaking cornerback DaRon Bland is too much, especially with Pittsburgh cooking offensively with Fields.

We’d advocate taking it at FanDuel since that sportsbook had the spread a full point lower than competing books yet at the same -115 odds as of Thursday afternoon.

5. New Orleans Saints Cover +5.5 Points Kansas City Chiefs

Best Odds/where to find them: -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Why you should bet this:

The Saints are tied with the Minnesota Vikings with a plus-57 point differential despite their 2-2 record. New Orleans have dropped two straight by exactly two points against the Eagles and Falcons, two of the best teams in the NFC.

The Chiefs are 4-0 but have escaped by the skin of their teeth in each of those games. Kansas City spotted the Los Angeles Chargers a 10-0 advantage before roaring back for a 17-10 victory, which was a costly win since it lost No. 1 wide receiver Rashee Rice to a knee injury.

Even though the Saints have the No. 1 offense in football, and the Chiefs are a patchwork unit without Rice and running backs Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, it would be tough to wager New Orleans to upset the two-time reigning champs, especially at Arrowhead.

But taking New Orleans to stay within a touchdown seems like a no-brainer, especially since KC was just 5-4 in the regular season at home a year ago and has won two home game by just eight points this year.

Again, buying that extra half point – since some sportsbooks have the spread listed at +/-5 – without the odds penalty is the play, which is why we advocate placing the bet with Caesars.