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NFL Picks, Props And Week 5 Odds Browns-Commanders And Vikings-Jets In London

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3 hours ago

October 4, 2024

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NFL Picks, Props And Week 5 Odds Browns-Commanders And Vikings-Jets In London

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, right, runs past Arizona Cardinals linebacker … [+] Zaven Collins during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz. The Commanders won 42-14. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Associated Press

Pro football kicked off Week 5 with a thrilling divisional game and QB Kirk Cousins’ 509 passing yards and 4 touchdowns led the Atlanta Falcons to a 36-30 overtime win over NFC South rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That victory lifted the Falcons into a first-place tie with the Bucs at 3-2 with the NFC South’s New Orleans Saints (2-2) looking to knock off the undefeated defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) on the Week 5 Monday Night Football feature. Five other divisional games are scheduled for Sunday, Oct. 6 along with the first game of the season in London between the Minnesota Vikings (4-0) and New York Jets (2-2).

While there are just two undefeated teams remaining in the Vikings and Chiefs, the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) are the only winless team heading into their Week 5 divisional home game against the Indianpolis Colts.

The betting data changes throughout each day and the leading online sportsbooks adjust the spread and odds. Heading into Friday afternoon, BetMGM reports that Jets-Vikings and Browns-Commanders games are the most bet in Week 5 followed by the division duel Ravens-Bengals, who are 2-2 and 1-3 heading into the key contest and were the preseason favorites to win the AFC North.

NFL Betting Trends – Latest Bet And Money Percentages

The Vikings, Commanders and Ravens have all taken more than 79% of the spread bets and money (handle) as of Friday afternoon at FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM also reports those three teams as the most bet against the spread (ATS).

According to playoff probability odds averaged from top online sportsbooks heading into Week 5, these are the odds and probability of this week’s most bet teams to make the playoffs.

-500: Vikings
-125: Jets
+115: Commanders
+600: Browns
-500: Ravens
+110: Bengals

Despite a 1-3 record for both the Browns and Bengals, you can see the oddsmakers take on which team has the far better chance to make the playoffs with Cincinnati nearly even money (+110) with FanDuel giving the Browns (+410) a little better chance.

NFL Week 4 Odds

Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Listed point spreads on favorites.

New York Jets vs. Minnesota (-2.5), game total points 40.5 (London)
Baltimore (-2.5) at Cincinnati, 48.5
Carolina at Chicago (-3.5), 41.5
Miami at New England (-1.5), 36.5
Buffalo at Houston (-1.5), 47.5
Indianpolis at Jacksonville (-3), 46.5
Cleveland at Washington (-3), 43.5
Arizona at San Francisco (-7.5), 49.5
Las Vegas at Denver (-2.5), 35.5
Green Bay (-3) at Los Angeles Rams, 48.5
New York Giants at Seattle (-6.5), 42.5
Dallas at Pittsburgh (-2.5), 43.5 (Sunday Night)
New Orleans at Kansas City (-5.5), 42.5 (Monday Night)

The bye week schedule for Week 5 includes the Lions and Eagles in the NFC and Chargers and Titans in AFC.

NFL Week 5 Injury Reports

The Commanders (3-1) and Vikings (4-0) are trying to make worst-to-first moves to win their NFC divisions after finishing last a season ago (Vikings tied Bears). Both teams are off to strong and surprising starts with the Commanders now on a 3-0 SU/ATS run and the Vikings a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season.

Browns-Commanders

Washington ‘commanded’ little betting interest to start the season, and even less after losing their opening game at Tampa Bay, 37-20. Now riding the hot hand of star rookie QB Jayden Daniels, bettors are piling on the Commanders this week and Daniels bandwagon and bets have grown to make him the current favorite on FanDuel at -180 to win Rookie of the Year.

Ahead of last week’s game, the Browns were projected as a 3-point favorite. After losing to the Raiders in Las Vegas combined with Jayden Daniels leading the NFC East division-leading Commanders to a 42-14 win at Arizona, bettors are piling on the Commanders now as a 3 to 3.5-point favorite.

But not some pro bettors, who have been posting strong picks and results in recent weeks.

“This has caused all the line value for this game to be with the Browns. This game is a classic buy low on the Browns and sell high on the Commanders,” “Dr. Alan” Dumond said.

Vegas Stats & Information Network senior reporter and handicapper Dave Tuley agrees.

“Oddsmakers and the betting public have over-adjusted with this point spread and I’ll gladly take the points.”

Player prop bets continue to most popular for fans, and additional props now offered at FanDuel include players to lead the league in select yardage categories for a given month. You’ll want to know which teams have bye weeks and play fewer games each month as well.

Vikings-Jets

Three undefeated teams lost last week leaving the Vikings and Chiefs remaining at 4-0. Playbook Sports notes in their Midweek Alert newsletter that Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is 7-0 ATS in his pro career as an underdog coming off a straight up (SU) loss as favorite and facing a team off back-to-back SU wins. Caution to select trends, but popular favorites like the Vikings are 2-5 SU overall playing in London and 0-4 SU/ATS since 2019 if they have a win percentage of .750 or greater. The Vikings also enter this Tottenham tangle off 3-straight wins as an underdog. Note divisional favorites in that role next game are 2-17 ATS with additional totals parameters adding to the technical trends against the Vikings.

The Jets travel off a loss as the biggest betting favorite last week on a missed last second field goal to fall 10-9 to the Denver Broncos.

Player Props

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson and RB Aaron Jones are both +550 to score the first touchdown in the Jets-Vikings game, while Jets RB Breece Hall is +600.

Vikings QB Sam Darnold passing yards: Over/Under 217.5
Jets QB Aaron Rodgers passing yards: O/U 225.5
Vikings RB Aaron Jones rushing yards: O/U 64.5
Jets RB Breece Hall rushing yards: O/U 49.5
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson receiving yards: O/U 75.5
Vikings WR Jordan Addison receiving yards: O/U 37.5
Jets WR Garrett Wilson receiving yards: O/U 52.5
Jets WR Allen Lazard receiving yards: O/U 37.5
Jets WR Mike Williams receiving yards: O/U 33.5

The Jets-Vikings game is played on turf in London, and the weather forecast shows possible rain on Sunday.

Dr. Bob Sports notes the heavy blitz pressure by the Broncos against Jets QB Aaron Rodgers, and that the Vikings defense has a 51.0% blitz rate (2nd-highest in NFL).

Jets WR Garrett Wilson got open on 16 routes last week, leading the NFL. He’ll line up across from Minnesota nickelback Byron Murphy, who is surrendering a league-high 2.03 yards per cover snap.

That makes Garrett Wilson a target in receiving yards and receptions (5.5) at plus odds or 4.5 receptions (-170) – Bet over.

Both Jets and Vikings quarterbacks should be under more pressure this week with matchups and select offensive line issues. The last four NFL games in London have gone under the game total since 2022 with 45 points the most combined points scored.

Vikings star WR Justin Jefferson (+650) is in a close early race with running backs Saquon Barkley of the Eagles and Derrick Henry of the Ravens for Associated Press Offensive Player of the Year. The biggest market mover for Most Valuable Player is Vikings QB Sam Darnold (+1200), who is fifth in the odds now after starting the season at +20000, or 200/1.

Pro football games have averaged 43.1 points per game through four weeks. The Saints-Falcons result (66 points) to kickoff Week 5 may be a sign of more quarterbacks and offenses getting more comfortable in their systems and finding their groove. The Browns-Commanders is one of the most bet games to go over the game total this week, along with the Bills-Texans and Packers-Rams.

Follow more NFL teams and betting news with Week 5 picks, props and popular same game parlays. as the division races tighten and teams

You can bet on it.