NFL Week 5 picks against the spread: A cranky Aaron Rodgers heads to London

You have to give Aaron Rodgers credit. He predicted that the New York Jets might be overconfident against the Denver Broncos after winning two straight games.

Yes … it is kind of par for the course with his curmudgeon personality these days. Who else shoves their coach away when he comes in for a hug after a touchdown?

This week, Rodgers and coach Robert Saleh got into it over cadence. Saleh pointed at the seven pre-snap penalties in the loss to the Broncos and questioned if the Jets were “good enough” to handle all of Rodgers’ cadence.

Rodgers made a Jack Nicholson face and essentially said, “How dare you?”

“We’re always going to push the envelope with cadence. Always,” he said on “The Pat McAfee Show.”

I know, I know, this is exciting stuff …

Saleh then told reporters on Wednesday, “There is no cadence issue. There never was a cadence issue. That was created (by others). Aaron and I are fantastic. Love the guy.”

Whew.

Rodgers now takes his cadence and a bulky knee to London to take on the red-hot Minnesota Vikings. And we picked him, which probably means he’ll lose and be even crankier next week.

Last week’s record: 4-12 against the spread, 1-4 on best bets.

Season record: 25-37-2 against the spread, 6-12-2 on best bet.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

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One of the few things we got right last week was that Vita Vea and the Buccaneers were going to toss the Eagles around, and now Vea gets to pummel the Falcons. Kirk Cousins is down two offensive linemen, and worse yet the Buccaneers like to blitz — Cousins’ kryptonite. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons have had trouble rushing the quarterback — they have four sacks (last in the league) and average 3.5 splash plays per snaps (31st) — while Baker Mayfield has been on fire. He has the highest passer rating and completion percentage in Weeks 1 through 4 of his career this season with a 106.9 rating and a 70.5 percent mark. Let’s try not to overthink this one.

The pick: Buccaneers 

Rodgers is off to the worst four-week start of his career — with a 92.9 passer rating — but part of that is he has never had receivers drop eight passes this early. Sam Darnold, on the other hand, is getting some well-deserved MVP hype but is getting a lot of help from his offensive line, Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones. Jones ranks fourth in EPA per rush (0.08) among RBs with at least 40 carries behind Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. The Vikings defense is the real MVP thus far — it leads the NFL in EPA per drive (1.08), sacks (17), pressures (75) and hits (38). So … we’re picking the Jets. This is the year of hangover, after all, and the Vikings will have a long flight to think about that win in Green Bay and their perfect start. The Jets are already coming off a mean hangover and a 10-9 loss to the Broncos. Big bounce-back week from Breece Hall.

The pick: Jets 

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Hope you’re enjoying the lovely rug beneath you. Because I am about to give it a strong tug. This is another game that looks easy on paper. The Bears are riding high again at 2-2 and Caleb Williams will be able to breathe this week. The Panthers rank tied for 29th in pass pressure at 25.6 percent and last in QB hits with 10. Plus the Bears’ running game finally got going last week, while their defense plays downhill. But we don’t trust their coach with points, not even just 4, and the Panthers have something going with Andy Dalton. They should have covered last week against the desperate Bengals and will have a chance to win this one outright as well.

The pick: Panthers 

Derrick Henry is looking rejuvenated, but is that enough to beat the Bengals? (Tommy Gilligan / Imagn Images)

Someone recently said that Derrick Henry was going to be the last Hall of Fame running back, because of how the position has been devalued. If that’s the case, Henry is sprinting in. Last week, the big fella hit a top speed of 21.29 miles per hour on his 87-yard touchdown run. Since Next Gen Stats started tracking that in 2018, Henry has hit 20 mph 27 times, second only to Tyreek Hill (73). Speaking of the need for speed, the Bengals’ aptly-named Chase Brown is the fastest running back in the league, averaging 12.21 mph when he reaches the line of scrimmage. He and the return of Tee Higgins have given the Bengals a boost as they continue to shake off the dirt from being buried at 0-3 against the hungover and (most penalized) Ravens.

The pick: Bengals 

The Bills were flying high going into Baltimore last week, but our MVP candidate looked like Tyler Huntley, Jacoby Brissett and Bo Nix. Those were the only three QBs who had a worse EPA per dropback (-0.37) than Josh Allen. He should be able to bounce back against a disappointing Texans defense. Houston has also had trouble protecting C.J. Stroud and could easily be 1-3 instead of 3-1. Their point differential this season is negative-15. Another reason their record should be worse is the Texans lead the NFL with 26 accepted offensive penalties. The Josh Allen MVP bandwagon rides again.

The pick: Bills 

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The Jaguars showed signs of life last week, only to lose and not cover the spread. You know how you fall asleep on the plane and your head jolts up for a second? I think that’s what that was for the Jaguars, who should go back to taking a dirt nap for Doug Pederson. Trevor Lawrence has regressed under Pederson and behind a bad offensive line, and I don’t think it matters who starts for the Colts, Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco — they’re each better than Lawrence. Flacco was up to his old tricks (get it?) with a 0.24 EPA per dropback rate and 105.9 passer rating in relief of Richardson last week. The Colts defense is not very good — allowing a 49.2 percent conversion rate on third down (29th) — but they rank third in the league with 102 splash plays. Lawrence will be all wet and 0-5.

The pick: Colts 

Tyreek Hill tried to be a good soldier, talking up new quarterback Tyler Huntley to the sideline reporter before the game Monday night. Huntley, as anyone could guess from his days with the Ravens, was awful. It’s amazing how badly Mike McDaniel handled the QB situation, knowing Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion history. From awful backups, to trading for awful backups, to awful game plans. Hill ranks 66th among 71 receivers with a -0.38 EPA per target rate and a 0.1 EPA per reception rate in the past two weeks, and it’s no surprise that the Dolphins are 0-4 against the spread. The Dolphins defense is not bad, and the Patriots block for Jacoby Brissett like they don’t like him, but backing the Dolphins at this point is like lighting a candle in church.

The pick: Patriots 

Every week, people rip on Deshaun Watson … and no, we’re not going there. But last week, the Browns beat the Raiders if a perfect pass from Watson doesn’t bounce off Amari Cooper’s chest and sail high enough that Raiders safety Tre’von Moehrig could’ve signaled for a fair catch. And how come no one is ripping on James Hudson III? He is the worst left tackle in the league with a 10.3 percent pressure rate, a league-high 14 pressures and eight QB hits. Maybe Hudson is due for a bounce-back week. Luckily, the Commanders have a terrible defense. They are last EPA per play (-0.22), EPA per drive (-1.57), EPA per pass (-0.38) and third down percentage (54.8). That has to balance out the great Jayden Daniels at some point. (Daniels has the third-best EPA per dropback over his first games since 2000 at 0.32, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Tony Romo). Close your eyes, pinch your nose and take the points.

The pick: Browns 

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Who needs Davante Adams? Heck, who needs Maxx Crosby? The defensive star as out last week with a high ankle sprain, and some guy named Charles Snowden came in and ripped off a a 41.7 percent pressure rate on 12 pass rush snaps. That’s the best rate in the league this season. Crosby is likely back his week — he is a maniac — and who doesn’t want to play against Bo Nix? The rookie QB was 7-of-15 for negative-7 passing yards in the first half last week. Nix is the opposite of Jayden Daniels — the only quarterbacks with a worse EPA dropback rate (-0.30) since 2000 are Josh Rosen and David Carr. The Broncos defense has been a surprise, but it’s crazy that the Broncos are 2-2. Too much Snowden, Crosby and Brock Bowers this Sunday and the Raiders win their ninth straight game against the Broncos.

The pick: Raiders 

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I blame the national pundits and social media film guys for last week’s Cardinals pick. Watch out for the Cardinals … they’ve been in every game … dangerous offense … yada yada yada. Well, they got trounced at home against the Commanders. Now they face one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Yeah, you know who. Brock Purdy has not been shy — he ranks second in air yards per attempt averaging 10.6 air yards per throw — and is still very efficient, ranking third in EPA per dropback (0.19) and total QB EPA (27.4). Now he faces a terrible Cardinals secondary. The 49ers defense took another hit last week, losing linebacker Fred Warner (day to day with an ankle injury), but I am not rolling with Kyler Murray again. That probably means I am staring a backdoor cover in the face. So be it.

The pick: 49ers 

Jordan Love shook off some rust against the Vikings and — better yet — feels good about his knee injury. (Jeff Hanisch / Imagn Images

Jordan Love returned from his knee injury and was terrible in the first half against the Vikings, falling behind 28-0, before getting hot at the end. Was it all just rust? Love now ranks 25th in EPA per dropback (-0.08), 28th in EPA per dropback against the blitz (-0.36) and 30th in completion percentage (55.7 percent). The Rams defense, though, is not good. This could be a shootout as the Packers defense allows 6.4 yards per play (second highest) and 410.0 yards per game (third highest). The problem, though, is that Matthew Stafford will be holding tryouts in the parking lot before the game for receivers. Guards, too. Give us the healthier team.

The pick: Packers 

As I watched the Giants lose (but cover) against the Cowboys last week, it hit me that Daniel Jones might not be very good. Crazy. Who knew? The Giants only have six touchdowns this season, and that’s not a fluke. Jones can’t throw deep, can’t run like he used to … and the Giants can’t run at all. They have only two running plays of more than 20 yards. The Giants do get the Seahawks coming off Monday night loss and looking ahead to a Thursday night matchup against the 49ers. And while the Seahawks’ three wins came against the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins, they were outclassed Monday against the Lions. The defense couldn’t stop anything, and the only reason the game was somewhat close was because Geno Smith made some amazing throws under duress. The Giants, led by Kayvon Thibodeaux can get to the QB — they are 10th in pressure percentage at 37.1 percent, but third in sacks per pressure rate at 28.8 percent — and that’s enough for me to take the points against a distracted, overrated opponent.

The pick: Giants 

The Cowboys, my sleeper to get Davante Adams, just aren’t that good this season. Their defense has been a step slow, and that was before losing Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence to injury. Dak Prescott hasn’t been too sharp, and he can’t blame his running backs or the offensive line — the Cowboys rank third in pressure percentage allowed at only 25.8 percent. How is this for a surprising culprit? CeeDee Lamb ranks second to last (56th) in separation rate at 2.06 yards. The Steelers, meanwhile, are pretty good. Their defense ranks first in third-down conversion rate (21.9 percent) and defensive points per game allowed (8.7), while Justin Fields has made just enough plays for them to be 3-1. Pittsburgh has some offensive line injuries, but Fields can run away from the Cowboys just like Lamar Jackson did two weeks ago.

The pick: Steelers 

Patrick Mahomes has six touchdowns against five interceptions in four games this season. And he just passed Josh Allen as the odds-on favorite to win the MVP at plus-240. It’s another example of how crazy this season has been. The Chiefs are 4-0, have not played that well and just lost their third impact offensive player (Marquise Brown, Isiah Pacheco and now Rashee Rice). Too bad — or good for the rest of the league — the Raiders won’t trade them Adams. Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy — No. 1 in the league in average maximum speed on routes at 15.85 mph — becomes option 1, but the Saints should be able to handle him and Travis Kelce. The Saints have three defensive backs ranked in the top eight in defensive production rating: Tyrann Mathieu (third), Alontae Taylor (third) and Paulson Adebo (eighth). The Saints are two plays away from being 4-0. They should be able to at least keep this one close.

The pick: Saints

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Best bets: The Bengals and Colts start stacking wins, against the Ravens and Jaguars, respectively; the Packers and Steelers take advantage of injuries to the Rams and Cowboys; and the Saints are the latest team to lose a close one to the Chiefs.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Caleb Williams can’t match Andy Dalton and the Panthers (+4, plus-165) steal one in Chicago.

— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder. 

(Top photo: Mike Stobe / Getty Images)