Oddsmakers anticipate higher sports betting totals in London Series

This article was contributed by BetMGM. For more sports betting insights, check out BetMGM.com.

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will take their rivalry across the pond this weekend for the London Series at London Stadium in England.

The two-game set will begin at 1:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, featuring a pitcher matchup between Phillies left-hander Ranger Suárez and Mets left-hander Sean Manaea. Game 2 is slated for 10:10 a.m. ET on Sunday.

It’s challenging to know what to expect this weekend because this is just the third edition of the London Series. That’s even true for oddsmakers setting the betting lines at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

“There obviously isn’t a lot of data with these series, so it does provide some challenges,” BetMGM senior trader Halvor Egeland said. “But you can expect high totals for sure. We’d compare it to Coors Field, but even then, it’s more of an educated guess than anything.”

The London Series has been a high-scoring affair in its previous two installments.

In 2019, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox combined for a staggering 50 runs over two games. Last year, the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals added 22 more to the tally.

“The majority of lines are made using hundreds to thousands of games played in these stadiums, so we’re pretty confident [about] a regular game,” Egeland said. “The four games played in London are just not enough for us to feel extremely confident in any sort of projection.”

Still, oddsmakers are getting more familiar with adjusting betting lines for games in new venues.

The London Series is part of the MLB World Tour, created to bring Major League teams and players to a global fanbase.

The 2024 season began with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres clashing in the Seoul Series in South Korea. The Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies faced off in late April for the Mexico City Series.

According to Baseball Savant, the Gocheok Sky Dome (124) and the Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu (114) have the highest Park Factor this season. For context, London Stadium ranked fourth with a Park Factor of 106 in 2023.

“Mexico City has a higher altitude than Coors with smaller dimensions, so it was easier to project high totals and lower strikeout numbers,” Egeland said. “Gocheok Sky Dome is a controlled environment, obviously, so a lot more predictable.”

“Having said that, the sample size still is low for MLB players, so we’ll always have less confidence when pricing these up,” Egeland added.

One thing the trading team is more confident in is the strength of the Phillies. Philadelphia has the best record in the NL at 44-19 overall.

The Phillies are -300 favorites to win the NL East after being +325 underdogs in the preseason. Their odds of winning the NL pennant have gone from +800 to +275 since the spring, and their World Series odds have improved from +1500 to +600.

“The Phillies have certainly proven themselves to be a legitimate contender,” Egeland said. “Until they show otherwise, we have them as the second-best team in the NL, only behind the Dodgers, and we are trading them each night as if they’re that good.”

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