Saturday tips: Four horses to follow on Lockinge Stakes day at Newbury

On Saturday’s Group 1 Lockinge Stakes card at Newbury – live on Sky Sports Racing – Declan Rix puts forward four horses to follow…

Salt Bay

1.50 – Sky Sports Racing Aston Park Stakes (Group Three)

Likely favourite Desert Hero will obviously take a fair bit of beating, as his price of 11/8 suggests. There is plenty to like about a horse who progressed nicely as a three-year-old last year, finishing his season with a solid third in the St Leger.

A son of Sea The Stars, owned by The King and Queen and trained by William Haggas, he’s got a sexy profile, but his form doesn’t entitle him to be as short against the likes of Middle Earth and Salt Bay.

Significantly drying ground would be against the chances of Salt Bay, but with him having a run this season, he looks a better value bet against the favourite; given on raw ability, on what we’ve seen so far, not much separates them.

On peak performances, I have Desert Hero on 110+ vs Salt Bay 108+ vs Middle Earth 105p. Given the prices of 11/8 vs 6/1 vs 7/2, respectively, I would have Salt Bay shorter, especially on the back of his career best effort over this course and distance 28 days ago.

His return in the John Porter Stakes, both on form and visuals was pleasing, at a time we shouldn’t forget the Ralph Beckett horses weren’t firing. As an athlete of fair size and substance – along with his pedigree – he should be better this season, and for that 2024 debut run.

Let’s hope the ground doesn’t dry out too much and he doesn’t get too far behind early in a race lacking pace.

Goodwood Odyssey

3.00 Trade Nation London Gold Cup Handicap

While the Aston Park Stakes could prove quite tactical, the London Gold Cup has the makings of a race that could be run at a sound gallop, maybe even on the strong side.

That will suit the sweet-travelling Goodwood Odyssey, who not just continues to improve with racing, but also get sharper. He took a fair grip despite the good early gallop when winning at Sandown last time out, the son of Ulysses a pretty ready winner in a good time despite being hampered at a crucial time half-way up the straight.

The time of that contest, for the grade, was a good one too and after just three runs, the David Menuisier-trained inmate should have more to offer. I just hope he doesn’t get too far behind early from his wide draw.

Poniros

3.00 Trade Nation London Gold Cup Handicap

In time, a rating of 88 could underestimate the abilities of Poniros, who is still a hard horse to get a proper handle on after three runs. He is another who made a nice seasonal debut when trainer Ralph Beckett’s horses weren’t winning, although running well.

That effort came at Windsor 33 days ago against the Group 1-bred Harper’s Ferry (Lope De Vega x Talent), who had already had a run and was much better suited to the tactical nature of how the Windsor race played out.

The race produced a Finishing Speed Percentage of 113.33, with a tailwind pushing them home, and while Poniros was well-placed off that gallop, his breeding suggests a much stiffer examination of his stamina is needed to bring out the best in him.

As a son of Golden Horn, 12 furlongs may well be needed to extract the best out of this straight-forward three-year-old, but his prominent style of racing with a likely good gallop on means we should see a better version of him on Saturday.

He can go well at a double-figure price and has each-way claims.

Hi Royal

3.35 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group One)

For various different reasons, you can have concerns about the two classy market leaders in the Lockinge. Inspiral returns as a five-year-old mare without a run under her belt, for all she goes well fresh, but the biggest concern, potentially, is her widest of all draw in one.

The daughter of Frankel has had issues at the gates in the past, and this type of wide draw may well bring that bad habit back into play. In a race full of pace, this field could get away from her in the early stages, giving her a mountain to climb.

At the same time, a strong pace up front, with her owner mate and stable mate Audience potentially helping in that regard, will one, suit horses from off the pace and two, soften up Big Rock on the front-end.

Big Rock himself has questions to answer on quickening ground having his first run for a new trainer and so, this race could be worth having a swing at a horse at a big price. Step forward Hi Royal.

Second in the 2000 Guineas last year and third in the Irish 2000 Guineas, this son of Kodiac has form in top races over a mile, enough to suggest he shouldn’t be a 50/1 shot. Kevin Ryan’s inmate is a galloping type of miler so the likely solid pace will suit and we know he is fit from a run this year.

If Ryan Moore, who rides him again for the second time, can ration his speed well, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him hit the frame, especially if one or two of the market leaders don’t come up to scratch.