Ross Williams is back to preview the Week 6 action in the NFL, including another afternoon of gridiron in London.
NFL betting tips: Week 6
2pts DJ Moore (Bears) over 5.5 receptions at 21/20 (Bet365)
1pt DJ Moore (Bears) 100+ receiving yards at 3/1 (Bet365)
2pts Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens Over 51.5 points at 10/11 (General)
2pts David Montgomery (Lions) to score a touchdown at 8/11 (Sky Bet)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (At the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)
- Sunday 1430 BST, Sky Sports
After an up-and-down start to his NFL career, things clicked into place for Caleb Williams in week five. That’s good news for the 60,000 fans heading to North London this weekend and great news for Bears receiver DJ Moore.
Williams recorded a career-high quarterback rating of 126.2 against Carolina while accumulating over 300 passing yards and connecting on two touchdowns, both to Moore.
It was just the performance Williams needed ahead of Chicago’s transatlantic voyage and the matchup he’ll face at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium gives him every chance of a repeat display.
Needless to say, the Panthers defence aren’t exactly dominant against the pass so that should be taken into account, but this week’s opponents – the Jaguars – are statistically far worse.
Carolina concede 232 receiving yards per game on average, whereas Jacksonville are shipping a whopping 303 yards each time they take to the field. Only the Ravens have been leakier, and they’ve ran a high-volume quarterback gauntlet in the opening five weeks featuring Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott.
Jacksonville’s secondary has been shredded thus far in 2024. Even in last week’s victory over Indianapolis – their first of the season – they allowed 359 yards to a 39-year-old Joe Flacco and six Colts receivers caught passes for 30+ yards.
The match-up looks tailor made for an in-form quarterback and receiver tandem and the duo of Williams and Moore will be relishing the opportunity.
After scoring twice last week, Moore’s price to score a touchdown is tempting and it wouldn’t be a surprise if we see him finding the endzone, but Chicago were also very effective on the ground against the Panthers so the running backs may see much of the action in the redzone. D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson combined for three scores on the ground on Sunday.
With that in mind, we’ll instead turn to DJ Moore’s receiving props.
He’s plus money to make over 5.5 receptions and that looks to be the bet. Moore’s hit the six-catch mark twice already this season and rattled the crossbar with five receptions on a further two occasions. Crucially though, he’s been targeted by Caleb Williams at least six times in each of the Bears’ five games so far and is actually averaging 8.4 looks per game.
On the other hand, the Jaguars have conceded 26 receptions per game and that’s a figure that works out nicely with this selection. Moore has a 25.2% reception-share for Chicago so far and if he remains on pace, that means he should be in line for 6.5 catches on Sunday. Let’s call that six; enough to land this pick.
In what should be his easiest assignment of the season on paper, Moore could be in for an even bigger day than the mathematics suggest as he’s prone to breaking off long receptions.
Already this year he has catches of 44 and 34 yards. At 3/1, I’d also take a stab at Moore having a second-straight 100-yard game, having hit the 105-yard mark just a week ago.
Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens
- Sunday 1800 BST, Sky Sports
Requiring 52 points to land the over in a total match points market is something I’d usually avoid, but the prospect of the Baltimore Ravens clashing with the Washington Commanders just screams points-fest.
The case for the Commanders scoring heavily is a simple one. They’re the most prolific offence in the NFL right now, they’re averaging 31 points per game and they’ve scored 34+ points in three of their five games so far, including last week.
Jayden Daniels looks sensational and he’s unlikely to run into a brick wall this week as Baltimore’s defence isn’t living up to the reputation of their predecessors. AFC North defensive units are famed for their sturdiness and a refusal to give up points, but Baltimore have struggled so far this season.
The Ravens have conceded 25.2 points per game on average, which ranks them seventh-worst in the NFL. For context, the Arizona Cardinals currently sit next to Baltimore in those particular rankings with 25.8 points conceded and, just a fortnight ago, Washington hung 42 points on them, in Arizona.
Bar a complete misstep, Washington shouldn’t have too much trouble scoring on Sunday.
Of course, it takes two to tango in this scenario, but I think Baltimore’s offensive matchup works in our favour here too.
The Ravens have put up 41 and 35 points in their previous two outings and they’ve now proven that they can beat teams with multiple approaches. They can completely grind teams down with the run game – as Buffalo discovered – and Lamar Jackson can hold his own against high-powered passing attacks, should it be necessary.
Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals scored five touchdowns last weekend and racked up 392 passing yards, but Baltimore still picked up the victory due to Jackson finding almost 350 passing yards of his own.
If I had to guess, the Ravens’ approach this week will prioritize the run-game and Derrick Henry’s ability to dominate. The Achilles heel of this Washington team is their run-defence. They’re allowing 130 yards per game on the ground but, more damagingly, they’re allowing 5.1 yards per carry against backs, second worst in the league.
A bottom-ten run defence against the NFL’s #1 rush attack (by far) is a recipe for chunks of Baltimore yardage and the points should flow pretty consistently as a result.
Two explosive offences facing off against a couple of defences with serious concerns and fragilities? Let’s take a swing on the over.
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
- Sunday 2125 BST, Sky Sports
The headline match-up of the evening window includes a great opportunity to cash in on a trend.
Lions running back David Montgomery has been as consistent as anyone on the scoring charts this season. Despite sharing the rushing load with Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery has scored four touchdowns in as many games.
Both rushers have been effective in the redzone, but it’s Montgomery who has been receiving the majority of the snaps in scoring scenarios. Through four games, he’s taken a 58% carry-share inside the ten-yard line and 60% inside the five. In other words, he’s the go-to man in the first instance.
Coming off a bye week, the Detroit back will be refreshed and more than capable of keeping up this momentum, and the match-up he faces in Dallas is favourable too.
The Cowboys defence are middle-of-the road generally against the run, conceding 4.4 yards per carry, but they’ve been very susceptible to shipping points to the running back position. In five games, Dallas have allowed eight rushing touchdowns. Only the Carolina Panthers (nine) have allowed more.
Few teams are willing to commit to the run as much as Detroit (they average over 32 carries per game) and I believe it’ll be in their favour this weekend as they look to put Dallas to the sword.
Montgomery has 13 redzone carries to date and he’s been good enough to turn those into four touchdowns. To put that into perspective, the NFL’s leading rusher Jordan Mason has 26 carries inside the twenty, and he’s only scored three from those attempts.
This is a great spot for an in-form back to continue a great scoring run.
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