Will It Snow At Christmas? Here’s The Latest White Christmas Betting Odds

Article By

Joe Short

Last Updated: 14 Mar 2024

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Betting sites believe there’s a good chance of snow in Scotland this Christmas but aren’t sure the white stuff will spread to the rest of the UK.

Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen all carry a 40% chance or greater of enjoying snow on December 25.

The likes of Newcastle, Leeds and Manchester are all more likely to witness a flurry on Christmas Day compared to New York. But England’s northerly airports are generally expected to avoid snow.

Belfast is also expected to miss out on Xmas snow but bookmakers have shortened the city’s odds to a one-in-five possibility.

There have been continual changes to the White Christmas odds over the past month as UK betting sites look at weather patterns to figure out how cold it will be on the 25th.

Snow looked likely when, at the beginning of December, overnight temperatures in Ayrshire fell to -5.5°C and as low as -6.1°C in Keswick. This winter has already seen snow settle Scotland and the north of England.

However, a mild, stormy week leading up to Christmas has forced the bookies to shift the market. They now think only the northerly-most airports in the UK will enjoy snow at Christmas, while cities like London and Cardiff are tipped to be snow-free.

In fact, the Met Office reckon we’re in for a stormy Christmas with unsettled weather on the horizon. There is already a Yellow Weather Warning in place for the days leading up to the 25th as low pressure moves in from Norway.

This pressure is carrying wind and rain, with daytime temperatures lingering around 10°C. Winds of up to 80mph have caused Denmark’s Met Office to name the system Storm Pia.

Rain is expected to continue falling over the weekend, particularly in Scotland and northern England. While the south may escape the brunt of the bad weather, there are little signs of temperatures plummeting overnight.

“Christmas Day looks like being fairly unsettled in northern and western areas,” says Met Office chief meteorologist, Paul Gundersen.

“Any showers in the north could be wintry with hail and thunder, but even here, any snow will be mainly on high ground. The south of the country will see the best of the drier and brighter conditions. While temperatures will be near normal for the time of year it will be a windy day for many meaning it will feel colder.”

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How Christmas Day Snow Betting Works

Officially, the Met Office declares a White Christmas if a single snowflake is detected to have fallen anywhere in the country. That means we could have an official snowy 25th if there’s a brief flurry in Orkney, despite it being 12°C in Cornwall.

Bookmakers have a different way of doing things. They offer White Christmas odds on individual UK airports, where weather forecasts and reports are continually updated.

That’s why punters can bet on Glasgow seeing snow on Christmas Day, rather than the UK as a whole.

Bookies pay out for that bet if Glasgow airport confirms the presence of snow.

What Are The Odds On It Snowing This Christmas Day?

In 2022 the Met Office predicted a slim chance of snow and specials betting sites acted accordingly by widening their odds.

Those who wagered on Edinburgh and Belfast to get snow won their bets at a good price.

The odds of it snowing on Christmas Day this year are 5/4 in Glasgow and Edinburgh, which carry a 44.4% probability. 

BetVictor reckon Newcastle is the most likely English city to witness snow at 15/8 (34.8%), while Belfast (4/1, 20%) and Cardiff (9/1, 10%) are considered outside bets.

Interestingly, betting apps have Aberdeen as the third favourite at 6/4 (40%). The Granite City is only likely to witness snow if high pressure comes in from the north east and brings freezing temperatures, followed by a band of snow. This looks unlikely based on the recent Met Office predictions.

Leeds/Bradford airport, meanwhile, is 5/2 to see snow, ahead of Manchester airport (4/1). While Manchester is notorious for its rain, snow and sleet often falls to the east of the city in the Peak District and Yorkshire Dales, where clouds are forced upwards by the higher altitude.

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Britain’s average December temperatures vary greatly. In the north of Scotland and in Aberdeenshire, average highs float around 6°C and as low as 1°C. 

It is in the Deeside towns of Balmoral and Braemar where the mercury often plunges way before zero. Armagh in Northern Ireland has similarly cold conditions, as does Aberystwyth in Wales and Penrith in Cumbria.

Further south, though, and the weather can sometimes remain mild throughout winter.

Highs of 9°C and 10°C can be enjoyed in Newquay and Exeter, while London’s relative microclimate means snow is rarely enjoyed for more than a day or two in the capital.

The UK experiences a white Christmas on average once every six years, and enjoys snowfall once every 3.9 days in December.

That’s effectively a flurry every week, which theoretically means there is a one-in-seven chance that snow falls on Christmas day itself.

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Will It Snow In London This Christmas?

Meanwhile, the Met Office Christmas weather predictions fall in line with what the bookies reckon will happen in London and across the south of the country.

Snow is not expected here, with Birmingham priced at 6/1 (14.3% likelihood) of an Xmas Day flurry. Both London City and London Gatwick airports are 8/1 (11/1%) to see snow, with Cardiff even lower at 9/1 (10%).

That’s because the low-lying cities of the south only really get snow if there is nationwide low pressure and a quick weather system moves in while the air is below freezing.

However, the south is experiencing typical weather this time of year, with rain coming in from the Atlantic.

Updated by

Joe Short

Last Updated:
 
14 Mar 2024